Hot election issues

What are the issues voters face as they go to the polls on April 22nd 2009? In this short paper I shall try to highlight what I see as key factors that one might consider before casting ones ballot. The roots of them are, I suggest, economic but are clouded by the way in which South Africa’s historical legacy is understood, used and sometimes abused.

POVERTY, EDUCATION AND THE ECONOMY

Although indicators suggest a slight decline in the unemployment rate and the growth of a new black middle class (some suggest 1 million new middle class), even a growth of new millionaires, this is the proverbial tip of the iceberg. South Africa still has one of the worst rich to poor gaps (measured by the Gini Coefficient) in the world. Most South Africans are still poor to very poor with little short term chance of escaping poverty due to the fact that many still lack the basic skills to make them employable.

Despite elaborate new education schemes, the education system is still not producing sufficiently skilled persons to meet the demands of the market. Outcomes based education may be effective in countries with low teacher/learner ratios and good libraries to serve schools, but this is not the case in South Africa, where most schools are heavily under-resourced. There is also a disturbing level of teacher absenteeism and teacher unionism that seems ready to defend even the most incompetent and delinquent teachers. There is also widespread scepticism about the new high school qualification – many feel that results have been inflated for political reasons and that many under-prepared students have entered higher education as a result.

Mark adjustment at some institutes for higher learning has not helped either – failure rates remain high; moreover many businesses suspect qualifications of applicants from some colleges. The solution some find is employing qualified immigrants from elsewhere on the continent – technically meeting BEE requirements of state but having some negative effects, e.g. xenophobia etc (see 2).

Economic growth is not proceeding at the rate most experts feel it should to grow, create more jobs and build a more middle class society. Partly due to global recession, partly due to investor lack of confidence in South Africa’s short-term to long-term future (skills lack, crime, corruption, populist/authoritarian tendencies – a la Zimbabwe – of ruling party), this has a direct effect on poverty. This may lead some to think of desperate/populist short-term alleviation solutions ( e.g. land grabs) …which in turn will turn off investment confidence, leading to economic decline, poverty etc. In short unless there is investor confidence the economy may be set for a downward spiral.

RACISM AND XENOPHOBIA

The rainbow is at last fading. Apart from a small core of theologians who still write about it and a clutch of very naïve overseas commentators, no one talks of reconciliation any more. What reconciliation has happened has occurred at the local level in modest community outreach programmes. RACE is clear an issue, as is Xenophobia, and it’s all a function of the economy.

Race and xenophobia is least important among the upper middle class and rich. Here commonality of interests trumps colour. While whites and the new black middle class still hold the most power, power is being challenged. Land reform has yet to reach big agribusinesses.

Xenophobia is a function of poverty and resentment. Foreigners are seen as threats to livelihoods many of the poorest can never attain through lack of education on their part. Sexual discourse, that the makwerekwere are ‘stealing our women’, parallels the early 20th century ‘Black Peril’ discourse of white patriarchal elites and – as in the 1900s – has contributed to a moral panic.

Working class South African Minorities (whites, coloureds, Indians) see blacks (and black foreigners to some degree) as threats to their livelihoods: no longer do they have access to secure public service jobs of past (BEE and a new kind of political patronage – see 4 below – has put paid to that ). Some minorities, particularly coloureds, talk of being ‘not black enough’ to get ahead.

Most whites complain bitterly about the drop in standards, crime and bureaucratic corruption, even though blacks experience the worst in all of these phenomena. The subtext – spoken or unspoken – is “SA has gone to the dogs under black rule”. There are still deep-seated white supremacist ideologies that are unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future.

Racial violence is an increasing undercurrent. Xenophobia violence – and the mass killings at Skielik, NW – are graphic examples of these. These attacks, whether by whites or by blacks, share common features: fears, resentment (largely economic) and some degree of racist attitudes (e.g. ‘blacks are stupid and lazy’, ‘those Nigerians are all drug dealers’).

CRIME AND CORRUPTION
Despite apparent attempts to hide and massage statistics, crime stats in South Africa are still very high. South Africa is a violent and dangerous place. Poverty, unemployment, and urban overcrowding – all the usual social factors – combine to make crime a problem across race and class barriers. The poor are the most vulnerable, least protected, most at risk of violence. There is a growing vigilante mentality in many parts of South Africa (has been a part of history, particular when police and law seen as agents of oppression); ALL RACES large support the restoration of the death penalty (whether it’s effective or not – the strong sense is that folks want vengeance). Police and judicial system, but particularly police, are not really seen as effective. In many communities police are seen as stupid (semi-literate, can’t drive, lacking commitment) and incompetent (crime scene bunglers etc) – the new SAPS has inherited a system where police were mostly for crowd control and pass arrests – and are increasingly seen as corrupt and/or to varying degrees part of the crime problem.

The judicial system is seen as largely honest but creaking under the weight of cases. Many judges seem inexperienced and some seem indifferent/lazy. The legal community is engaged in internal battles to ‘transform’ itself, which is seen by many as opportunists getting ahead through race (BEE) or political connections (being close to the ANC helps!). No-one yet is saying that the judicial system is actually corrupt, but there is a fear that this might come.

Corruption is seen to be most prevalent in the public service…it is bred by serious inefficiency in the public service to deliver. Corruption is worsening according to the public view. Transparency International Corruption perception index puts SA at no.40 in world (out of 185) – not too bad, but down about 10 points in ten years. There is a strong sense that corruption is increasing as the ruling ANC party gains greater control over all sectors of public life. Increasingly, we note a strong sense that there is one law for the country and another law for the ruling party – MPs don’t go to jail for any significant time for corruption, the Arms Scandal is nicely hushed up, Jacob Zuma can bully or negotiate his way out of jail into presidency. This leads to

POLITICAL PARTY DOMINANCE AND ELECTORAL REFORM

We have what is called a one-party dominant (OPD) system in SA. ANC is simply the most popular in country for historical-sentimental reasons. Most voters seem to lack electoral sophistication and cannot think of voting strategically or changing sides – this would seem like supporting apartheid. Some politicians shamelessly exploit this by saying that a vote for the opposition is a vote for a return to apartheid. Cynics suggest that many party loyalists would vote a ham sandwich or a shower cap into parliament if their ‘leaders’ told them.

The ANC have brilliantly seized the ‘commanding heights’ of SA society – parliament, cabinet, much of the judicial system, chunks of business, media, traditional leaders, public media (observers holding this view argue we should note the lack of coverage of opposition parties, and the over-coverage of ANC) etc. Power & Patronage is shamelessly handed out to friends. None of this has even been hidden – it’s all open: ‘we intend to stay in power in SA till Jesus comes again’ (J Zuma, among others).

The ANC as a political party also has control over all policies going through the government. The ANC appoints the government de facto through the electoral process – and though its internal system of deployment of ANC members can recall MPs at will (even Ministers of the Cabinet) and have effectively deposed a President. The danger in all this is that Parliament becomes irrelevant to governance. Unless there is a dramatic upset at the polls on April 22nd – or if the Second Coming actually happens! – in a sense the 2009 election has already happened – at Polokwane in December 2007.

Electoral reform is ultimately subject to what ANC wants. The idea of a mixed constituency/ Proportional Representation system (the current German model) was nixed despite recommendations of the Slabbert Commission by the ANC in 1997. In the current climate there is no chance it will happen since the ANC don’t want it!

Though currently facing One Party Dominance, South Africa is still a constitutional democracy with opposition parties. Opposition parties are weak however, often rooted in narrow sectoral interests they seemingly can’t breech: tribe ( IFP), region (UDM, ID), race (DA) and now maybe social class. COPE, the Congress of the People, is a possible voice of the new (and parts of ‘enlightened’ [previously ANC supporting] white old) middle class. Unless COPE can convincingly build up a support base among the working class its potential for growth is limited – not least because large sections of the black middle class still seem to support the ANC.

In addition there is strong tradition of political intolerance of opposition parties trying to gain voices in ‘strongholds’ (Gouws, Gibson etc studies). To varying degrees the elections since 1994 though generally free and fair have been fought with parts of the country being seen as ‘no-go zones’ for certain parties. Happily this trend has declined in successive elections, but it remains to be seen whether we shall see a rise of electoral intolerance in 2009, as the ANC faces for the first time a new non-racial party close to its own tradition (COPE) and smaller regional parties feel increasingly threatened in their ‘home turf’.

HOW THE ELECTION WILL ULTIMATELY BE FOUGHT: IDENTITIES
If we examine the elections in terms of hot issues, in the end I think it all comes down to economic situation: Race, Party and Crime/Corruption are interlinked circles within the big circle. Linked to this is the use of identity politics to in some ways obscure the tough political and economic choices that need to be addressed.

Identity politics is convenient because it can whip up in a public a sense of belonging – even by those who do not benefit from socio-economic change and probably will never benefit. In a time of global economic crisis we cannot expect dramatic social shifts – politicians like most of us fear the unknown and would rather put up with the difficulties they know than risk what may turn out to be worse. In the same way that no seated U.S. President has ever lost an election during a war, elites who control economies and the purse strings of parties will not lend material support to parties advocating radical change in a time of uncertainty. Since the economy which is the issue in any election in a liberal democracy is not for changing (not least in our case since Finance Minister Manuel’s tenure has led to relative macroeconomic security and has contributed to relatively low short-term fall-out hitting us in the global economic crisis), the election must be fought on other terrain.

Some opposition parties are going to fight it over questions of corruption, nepotism and the integrity of Jacob Zuma. They will proclaim the need for efficient and clean government, strict upholding not only of the rule of law but its application equally to all. They will call for change in the system of governance, in less centralized decision-making, even for the direct election of the President. In economic matters they will probably not have much to say because for the most part their economic visions differ only in degree and some minor details from the ANC.

While all these factors are undoubtedly important, they are not ultimately going to pull in new votes except perhaps from hitherto undecided minorities. The ANC will no doubt trot out the identity and history cards along the following lines: We are the party of all patriotic South Africans because we are the party of liberation from apartheid. We are the party that has the interests of the majority at heart, because we are the party of the majority. You cannot trust other parties because they are parties of apartheid and collaboration with apartheid. Such things will not be said out loud or in such blunt terms (unless Julius Malema assumes a major role in communicating the ANC message) but will be the subliminal message that campaigners put out. And they will win. The ghosts of apartheid have not been laid to rest; the economic legacy remains with us. An ‘exorcism’ of these ghosts is not in the interests of the new ruling elite.

So why bother to vote? I think it is essential that we all vote on April 22nd because staying away is understood at bottom an expression of passive consent. It, and choosing to spoil ones ballot, is definitely not a ‘no’ vote for there is no such thing as a no vote in a democratic election. Absenteeism and ballot spoiling counts for nothing. It is only the cross on the paper that matters.
If one is unhappy with the situation and has no particular party preference, the best thing is to vote strategically: which party or parties has the greatest chance nationally and regionally to oppose the incumbents? Should I perhaps split my vote between national and provincial ballots? Whatever you choose, VOTE.

If one is happy with our situation (and many seem to be) but feel less than motivated to vote, staying away, though it probably won’t affect the election outcome, may well weaken the ruling party you support. And…what if the Second Coming is at hand?